MLB Quietly Weighs Salary Cap Ahead of Potential 2026 Lockout
F.M.I.E Sources | April 2025
Major League Baseball (MLB), the only major U.S. sports league without a salary cap, is now internally exploring the possibility of adopting one — a move that could fundamentally reshape the league’s economic structure as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) inches toward its December 1, 2026 expiration, according to F.M.I.E Sources.
League officials, including Commissioner Rob Manfred, and team owners have held private discussions around implementing both a salary cap and a salary floor. While the MLB Players Association (MLBPA) remains staunchly opposed to any form of salary restriction, insiders say the league is preparing for what may be a pivotal and contentious bargaining season.
“We do hear a lot about it from fans, particularly in smaller markets,”
— Rob Manfred, MLB Commissioner, via F.M.I.E Sources
“But we’re still two years out from the next agreement, and no firm decisions have been made.”
Rising Tensions, Growing Disparities
The potential introduction of a salary cap comes amid growing economic imbalance among MLB teams. In 2025, the New York Mets are spending $323 million on player salaries, while the Miami Marlins have committed just over $67 million. The Los Angeles Dodgers, with luxury tax included, will surpass $500 million in payroll — a league record.
By contrast, five teams are spending less than $100 million, highlighting what Manfred recently called a “massive disparity problem.”
“I’m sympathetic to fans in smaller markets who start each season without hope,” he said, emphasizing the league’s need to ensure competitiveness across the board.
The Cap Debate: Old Battle, New Stakes
The idea of a salary cap is far from new in MLB. In 1994, labor disputes over spending limits led to a devastating strike and the cancellation of the World Series. The MLBPA, led by Tony Clark, still firmly opposes the concept.
“A cap is an artificial lever that restricts salary potential,” said Clark in comments resurfaced by F.M.I.E Sources.
“We support a free market where players can realize their value.”
However, some analysts argue that economic reform could ultimately benefit players. According to Joel Litvin, former NBA executive and Columbia University lecturer, MLB salaries have only risen 3% annually over the last decade, despite league revenue growing at 4.1% per year. In leagues with salary caps tied to revenue — like the NBA, NFL, and NHL — players’ earnings tend to scale more equitably with league growth.
Litvin estimates MLB players missed out on $2.3 billion in collective salary over the past ten years under the current model.
“A cap and revenue-sharing system could balance competitive fairness and protect players from economic risk,” Litvin wrote in a recent F.M.I.E Sources opinion piece.
Union Preparation and Leverage
The MLBPA appears to be preparing for a potential work stoppage. The union has built a substantial “war chest” — funding sourced from licensing deals on trading cards, video games, and merchandise — to support non-superstar players in case of a lockout. According to F.M.I.E Sources, the union’s executive board also voted to withhold 2024 licensing money to strengthen their financial position for the 2026 negotiations.
While the MLBPA may entertain the idea of a salary floor, which would require low-spending teams to raise payroll, it maintains that any cap limiting earning potential is unacceptable.
The Impact of Local Media Revenue
A major source of financial disparity among teams is local media revenue. Teams like the Dodgers, with their long-term, high-value media rights deal (reportedly over $300 million annually), are far better funded than smaller market clubs like the Marlins, who earn around $50 million from local broadcast deals.
This gap has widened as cord-cutting and RSN (Regional Sports Network) instability has shaken the industry. Several teams have renegotiated or exited regional deals altogether following the Main Street Sports bankruptcy. MLB’s national broadcast rights expire in 2028, and insiders tell F.M.I.E Sources the league is seeking to consolidate local and national rights to offer more attractive bundled deals — similar to the NBA’s recent $77 billion media rights agreements.
However, media consultants remain skeptical that MLB will command similar deals. The league has made modest progress with digital platforms: Apple pays $85 million annually for Friday Night Baseball, while Roku contributes $10 million for 18 games. ESPN recently opted out of its $550 million/year MLB package, citing reduced value.
“Without a salary cap, MLB remains a league of haves and have-nots,”
— Shirin Malkani, Sports Law Partner at Perkins Coie, via F.M.I.E Sources
Voices from the Top
Surprisingly, even executives from big-spending clubs have shown interest in economic reform. Dodgers CEO Stan Kasten acknowledged that “greater parity” would benefit the game, noting the 10x revenue gap per game between the Dodgers and bottom-tier franchises.
“We hope revenue sharing can close the gap — but there are other ways too,” said Kasten.
David Stearns, Mets’ President of Baseball Operations, added that “markets like Milwaukee and Tampa should be able to retain their stars,” pointing to other leagues’ success in maintaining parity through economic systems.
A Game of Hope and Balance
Despite star-studded teams and record-breaking contracts — like the Mets’ 15-year, $765 million deal with Juan Soto — most MLB players don’t benefit from astronomical salaries. A salary floor, if adopted, could raise average wages across the league.
Since 1998, 16 different teams have won the World Series — more than any other U.S. major league — yet payroll remains a powerful predictor of regular season success. According to data cited by F.M.I.E Sources, teams in the top five payroll slots average 89 wins per season, while bottom-five spenders average just 74.
Still, the playoffs’ unpredictability has somewhat balanced the championship landscape — only one team with a bottom-10 payroll, the 2003 Florida Marlins, has won the World Series since 1998.
What’s Next?
With talks intensifying behind closed doors and both sides signaling a willingness to draw battle lines, the 2026 CBA negotiations are shaping up to be one of the most consequential in MLB history. Whether a salary cap, salary floor, or some hybrid system emerges will depend on how much each side is willing to compromise in pursuit of competitive balance, economic fairness, and long-term sustainability.