Key Insights:
- Optimism in the global business travel sector has plummeted by more than 50%, according to new data from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA).
- One-third of corporate travel buyers report that their organizations have altered or are considering changes to U.S.-related travel policies.
- Despite the downturn, trade tensions could spark new business travel as companies seek alternative markets and partners.
Confidence in the global business travel industry has sharply declined in 2025, with only 31% of surveyed professionals expressing optimism — down from 67% in November 2024. That’s according to a GBTA report reviewed by F.M.I.E Sources, which surveyed more than 900 travel professionals across North America and Europe.
The drop in sentiment reflects widespread concern over U.S. trade policy, tariffs, and increasingly restrictive border policies. In North America and Europe, more than one in four respondents admitted feeling “pessimistic” or “very pessimistic” about the industry outlook for the year.
Another 40% said they were neutral — neither optimistic nor pessimistic — signaling deep uncertainty.
“I haven’t seen this level of doubt since stepping into this role four years ago,” said Suzanne Neufang, GBTA’s CEO, speaking to F.M.I.E Sources.
Companies Tighten Travel Plans
The survey revealed that:
- 30% of business travel buyers expect reduced employee travel in 2025.
- 20% remain undecided about future travel commitments.
- 27% foresee a drop in business travel spending.
Some companies are also shifting strategic decisions:
- A full one-third of buyers said their firms have already adjusted, or are considering adjustments to, U.S. travel policies.
- 6% have relocated planned events outside the U.S.
“There’s opportunity here,” said Neufang. “From Asia-Pacific, Europe, even Latin America — these regions can benefit by becoming new hubs for business meetings and conferences.”
Long-Term Challenges on the Radar
Professionals cited two key concerns stemming from recent U.S. policies:
- Rising travel costs (54%)
- Growing visa processing delays (46%)
While airfares have slightly eased—down by about 2.2%, or $17 year-to-date, according to data from FCM Consulting—many fear that continued geopolitical tension could reverse this trend.
It’s Not All Doom and Gloom
Despite the short-term anxiety, the global business travel market remains on a path to exceed $1.6 trillion by year-end 2025, Neufang told F.M.I.E Sources. That figure could surpass $2 trillion by 2028, provided macroeconomic stability returns.
She noted that while business travel volumes have yet to match pre-COVID levels, spending fully recovered in 2024, fueled in part by inflationary price increases.
Trade tensions, paradoxically, could provide short-term boosts to travel demand. “A trade war doesn’t necessarily mean less travel,” Neufang said. “Companies will need to find new partners and forge new markets. If you lose a customer, you’ll need to fly to find another.”
However, she cautioned that prolonged tariffs and geopolitical instability will likely deter travel to and from the U.S.
“Travel within Europe, between Europe and Asia, or to Africa — those corridors should remain strong,” she added.
A Warning for U.S. Tourism
Leisure travel to the United States is already feeling the pinch. International visitor spending is projected to decline by 4.7% in 2025, equating to an $8.5 billion loss for the American travel industry—at a time when growth had been widely expected.
As U.S. policies continue to evolve, global travel organizations will be closely watching how business and leisure sectors adapt — or contract.